Welcome to our 2024 presidential election update! In this video, we’re diving into the latest data on the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. We’ll break down who’s leading, analyze polling data across all 50 states, and keep you informed with the most up-to-date information. Let’s get started!
California:
California is firmly in Kamala Harris's column. As one of the bluest states in the country, Harris holds a commanding lead over Trump by a whopping 25 points. According to the latest polling data, Harris has secured 59% of the vote, while Trump lags behind with 34%. California has long been a Democratic stronghold, thanks to its large, diverse population and progressive-leaning urban centers like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego. This state’s 54 electoral votes are vital for any Democrat, and Harris, a Californian herself, is expected to perform well here. Given its political leaning, it’s unlikely that California will shift from its solid blue status in this election.
Minnesota:
In Minnesota, the race is closer but still favors Kamala Harris. She holds a six-point lead over Donald Trump, with 49% of the vote compared to Trump’s 43%. Minnesota has been a traditionally blue state, but Trump has eyed it for a potential flip after coming close in 2016. Urban areas like Minneapolis and St. Paul lean heavily Democratic, while rural areas tend to favor Republicans. The question for this election is whether Trump can make inroads with working-class voters and suburbanites who have been crucial to Minnesota’s Democratic dominance. Harris’s slim lead indicates that while Minnesota is leaning Democratic, it remains competitive.
New Mexico:
Similarly, New Mexico mirrors Minnesota's numbers with Harris at 49% and Trump at 43%, presenting a six-point gap. New Mexico has been consistently Democratic in recent elections, but its small Hispanic population could swing towards Trump if his immigration policies gain traction. However, for now, Harris’s lead suggests that the state remains safely Democratic, though it’s still within striking distance for Trump if there are any significant shifts in voter turnout or sentiment.
North Dakota:
In North Dakota, Trump dominates with a strong 27-point lead over Harris, holding 59% of the vote to her 32%. North Dakota is a solidly red state, with a largely rural, conservative population. The state's reliance on agriculture and energy—particularly oil—has kept it in the Republican column for decades. Trump's policies on deregulation and support for the energy sector have bolstered his support here. Harris is unlikely to make any gains in this deeply conservative state.
South Carolina:
South Carolina is another stronghold for Donald Trump, where he leads Harris by 10 points. Trump holds 52% of the vote compared to Harris’s 42%. As a state with a significant evangelical Christian population and a history of voting Republican in presidential elections, South Carolina is expected to stay red in 2024. However, Harris might appeal to Black voters, who make up a sizable portion of the electorate. Still, Trump's solid lead indicates that this state will likely remain a Republican bastion.
Indiana:
Trump maintains a comfortable 17-point lead in Indiana, securing 56% of the vote compared to Harris’s 39%. Indiana, home to former Vice President Mike Pence, has consistently voted Republican in recent decades. While urban areas like Indianapolis tend to be more Democratic, the rural and suburban parts of the state are firmly in the GOP camp. Trump’s advantage here suggests that Indiana will continue to lean heavily Republican in this election.
Nebraska District 2:
Over in Nebraska’s second congressional district, the race is tighter. Harris leads by 8 points, with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 42%. Nebraska is one of two states, along with Maine, that splits its electoral votes by congressional district. The second district, which encompasses Omaha, is more urban and competitive compared to the rest of the state. It’s been a battleground in recent elections, and Harris’s lead here suggests that she has a strong chance of winning this district, though it remains a key battleground to watch.
Delaware:
In Delaware, Harris holds a 19-point lead, with 55% of the vote to Trump’s 36%. As President Joe Biden’s home state, Delaware is expected to remain solidly Democratic. The state’s small size and proximity to Democratic strongholds like Pennsylvania and Maryland mean that it has consistently voted for Democratic candidates in recent elections. Harris’s comfortable lead reflects Delaware’s deep-blue status.
New York:
New York is securely in Harris’s column, with a 13-point lead. She has 54% of the vote compared to Trump’s 41%. New York is one of the bluest states in the nation, largely due to the overwhelmingly Democratic vote in New York City, which counterbalances more conservative upstate regions. The state's 28 electoral votes are crucial for any Democratic candidate, and Harris is expected to win comfortably here.
Wyoming:
Wyoming sees Trump with one of his largest leads in the country. He is up by 37 points, with 65% of the vote compared to Harris’s 28%. Wyoming is the least populous state and one of the most conservative, having voted Republican in every presidential election since the 1960s. Trump’s policies on energy, particularly coal, have resonated with voters here, ensuring that Wyoming remains solidly in the Republican column.
Idaho:
Idaho is another strong win for Trump. He leads Harris by 26 points, securing 60% of the vote while Harris lags at 34%. Idaho’s deeply conservative electorate, particularly in rural and suburban areas, has consistently favored Republican candidates. The state’s strong Republican identity is reflected in Trump’s commanding lead, making Idaho a secure state for the GOP.
Maine District 1:
In Maine’s first district, Harris leads comfortably by 27 points, holding 61% of the vote to Trump’s 34%. This district, which includes the liberal coastal cities of Portland and Augusta, has consistently leaned Democratic in recent elections. Harris’s strong lead here suggests that this district will remain firmly in the Democratic column.
Georgia:
Georgia is a razor-thin race, with Trump leading by just 1 point. He holds 48% of the vote to Harris’s 47%. After flipping blue for the first time in decades during the 2020 election, Georgia has become a crucial battleground state. Its diverse electorate, particularly the growing suburban and African American populations, has made it more competitive. Trump’s narrow lead suggests that Georgia will be one of the most hotly contested states in this election.
North Carolina:
North Carolina shows another close contest, with Harris leading by a slim one-point margin. She holds 47% of the vote to Trump’s 46%. North Carolina has become a key battleground in recent elections, with both parties investing heavily in the state. The growing urban centers of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham lean Democratic, while rural areas and small towns tend to favor Republicans. This tight race reflects North Carolina’s status as a true swing state.
Ohio:
Trump leads in Ohio by 6 points, securing 51% of the vote to Harris’s 44%. Ohio, once seen as the quintessential swing state, has trended Republican in recent elections. Trump’s appeal to working-class voters, particularly in the industrial Midwest, has strengthened his support in Ohio. While Harris may hope to make gains in urban areas like Cleveland and Columbus, Trump’s lead suggests that Ohio is leaning Republican once again.
Michigan:
Michigan is shaping up to be a major battleground state, with Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a slim two-point margin. Harris holds 48% of the vote compared to Trump’s 46%. Michigan was a critical state in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016, flipping it from its traditional Democratic lean, but Joe Biden reclaimed it for the Democrats in 2020. Michigan’s large population of working-class voters, particularly in suburban and rural areas, makes it a key swing state. Detroit, Flint, and other urban centers will be vital for Harris’s campaign, while Trump will focus on appealing to voters in the more conservative areas of the state. The tight polling here indicates that Michigan will again be fiercely contested.
Pennsylvania:
In Pennsylvania, another crucial battleground state, Harris holds a narrow one-point lead over Trump. Harris is polling at 48%, while Trump is close behind at 47%. Like Michigan, Pennsylvania was pivotal in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania in 2016 was seen as a major upset, and Biden’s win in 2020 helped secure his path to the presidency. The state’s mix of urban and rural voters makes it highly competitive. Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are Democratic strongholds, but rural areas lean heavily Republican. The race is expected to be close again, with both candidates focusing heavily on Pennsylvania in their campaigns.
Wisconsin:
Wisconsin is another key battleground where Trump holds a slight one-point lead. He has 47% of the vote, while Harris is close behind at 46%. Wisconsin has been a swing state in recent elections, with Trump winning it narrowly in 2016 and Biden flipping it back in 2020. The state’s mix of urban Democratic strongholds like Milwaukee and Madison, along with conservative rural areas, makes it a battleground. Trump’s narrow lead suggests that Wisconsin is still very much in play for both candidates, and it will be one of the most closely watched states on election night.
Florida:
Florida, with its 30 electoral votes, is another key state where Trump is leading by 4 points. Trump holds 50% of the vote, while Harris is polling at 46%. Florida has long been a swing state, with both parties investing heavily in voter outreach here. Trump won Florida in both 2016 and 2020, and the state’s large senior population, as well as its growing Hispanic community, will be crucial in determining the outcome. While Trump has a solid lead, Florida’s history of close elections means that it remains competitive, and both candidates are likely to make numerous campaign stops here.
Arizona:
In Arizona, Harris holds a slight two-point lead, with 48% of the vote compared to Trump’s 46%. Arizona flipped blue in the 2020 election for the first time in decades, largely due to shifting demographics in the state’s urban centers, particularly Maricopa County. The state’s growing Latino population, along with an influx of voters from more liberal states like California, has made Arizona more competitive for Democrats. Harris’s narrow lead suggests that Arizona will once again be a closely contested state in 2024, and it’s likely to be a major focus for both campaigns.
Nevada:
Nevada is another state where Harris holds a small lead, polling at 49% to Trump’s 46%, giving her a three-point edge. Nevada has leaned Democratic in recent elections, but Trump has remained competitive, particularly with the state’s rural voters. Las Vegas and Reno, the state’s largest urban areas, tend to vote Democratic, while the rest of the state leans more conservative. Harris’s lead suggests that Nevada is leaning blue, but it remains a battleground that could shift depending on voter turnout and campaign efforts.
New Hampshire:
In New Hampshire, Harris is leading by 5 points, polling at 51% compared to Trump’s 46%. New Hampshire has been a battleground state in previous elections, though it has leaned Democratic in recent cycles. Its small size belies its importance, as New Hampshire has a reputation for being politically independent, with voters frequently swinging between the two major parties. Harris’s lead here suggests that the state is trending Democratic, though New Hampshire’s history of close races means that it’s still a state to watch.
Colorado:
Colorado is firmly in Harris’s column, with a 13-point lead over Trump. Harris is polling at 54%, while Trump is at 41%. Colorado has trended blue in recent elections, and its growing urban and suburban populations, particularly around Denver, have made it a Democratic stronghold. The state’s diverse electorate, including a large Hispanic population, has bolstered Democratic candidates in recent years. Harris’s commanding lead indicates that Colorado is likely to remain solidly blue in 2024.
Texas:
In Texas, Trump holds a 6-point lead, polling at 50% to Harris’s 44%. Texas has long been a Republican stronghold, but shifting demographics, particularly in urban areas like Houston, Dallas, and Austin, have made the state more competitive for Democrats in recent elections. While Trump’s lead suggests that Texas is still leaning Republican, the state’s growing diversity and younger electorate mean that it could become more of a battleground in future elections. For now, though, Trump’s advantage suggests that Texas will likely remain red in 2024.
Iowa:
Trump is leading comfortably in Iowa, with a 9-point lead over Harris. Trump is polling at 52%, while Harris is at 43%. Iowa has been a swing state in the past, but in recent elections, it has trended more Republican. Trump’s appeal to rural voters and his focus on issues like trade and agriculture have resonated in Iowa, giving him a strong advantage here. Harris is unlikely to close the gap significantly in this deeply conservative state.
Missouri:
In Missouri, Trump holds a 16-point lead, polling at 57% compared to Harris’s 41%. Missouri has become a reliably red state in recent elections, and Trump’s strong support among rural and suburban voters has cemented his advantage here. Harris is unlikely to make significant gains in Missouri, which has trended Republican in presidential elections for over a decade.
Virginia:
In Virginia, Harris holds a comfortable 7-point lead, polling at 51% to Trump’s 44%. Virginia has trended blue in recent years, particularly due to the growth of the Washington, D.C. suburbs in Northern Virginia, which lean heavily Democratic. The state’s diverse population, including a significant Black and Hispanic electorate, has also contributed to its shift toward the Democratic Party. Harris’s lead suggests that Virginia will remain blue in 2024.
Maine District 2:
In Maine’s second congressional district, Trump holds a 4-point lead, polling at 51% compared to Harris’s 47%. Like Nebraska, Maine splits its electoral votes by congressional district, and the second district, which is more rural and conservative, has been a battleground in recent elections. Trump’s lead here suggests that he has a good chance of winning this district’s single electoral vote again in 2024.
Kansas:
Kansas is solidly in Trump’s column, with a 15-point lead over Harris. Trump is polling at 56%, while Harris is at 41%. Kansas has consistently voted Republican in presidential elections, and its conservative electorate makes it unlikely that Harris will make significant gains here. Trump’s strong support among rural and suburban voters ensures that Kansas will remain a Republican stronghold.
Alaska:
In Alaska, Trump holds a 10-point lead, polling at 53% to Harris’s 43%. Alaska has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964, and Trump’s lead here suggests that the state will remain red in 2024. While Alaska’s small population means it only contributes three electoral votes, it remains an important state for the GOP.
Montana:
Montana sees Trump with a commanding 20-point lead over Harris. Trump is polling at 59%, while Harris is at 39%. Montana has consistently voted Republican in recent elections, and its largely rural, conservative electorate makes it a safe state for Trump. Harris is unlikely to close the gap significantly in Montana, which is expected to remain solidly red.
Utah:
In Utah, Trump holds a 15-point lead, polling at 55% to Harris’s 40%. Utah is one of the most reliably Republican states in the country, though Trump’s unconventional candidacy in 2016 caused some fractures within the state’s Republican base. Despite this, Trump’s support among conservative voters has remained strong, and Utah is expected to stay in the Republican column in 2024.
0 Comentarios